Tariffs, Trump, and Trucking: How New Trade Policies Are Hitting the Freight Industry Hard

President Donald Trump reasserts his influence on U.S. trade policy, the trucking industry is once again in the crosshairs. His recent push for aggressive tariffs—some as high as 145% on Chinese goods and a 10% blanket duty on others—is sending shockwaves through the freight economy. For an industry already bruised by a prolonged freight recession, these measures are not just policy shifts—they're potential turning points. With freight volumes sliding and carriers under mounting pressure, many are asking: can the industry weather another Trump-era trade storm?

The Freight Recession Deepens: The freight recession, which began in 2023, shows no signs of abating. Major carriers like J.B. Hunt have reported substantial declines in operating income, with recent figures indicating an 8% drop year-over-year. The company's stock has also seen a notable decrease, reflecting investor concerns over the prolonged downturn. ​

Tariffs Amplify Industry Struggles: The introduction of sweeping tariffs by the Trump administration has further strained the trucking sector. These tariffs, including a 145% duty on Chinese imports and a 10% blanket import tariff on other nations, have led to increased costs and operational uncertainties. Companies are now facing difficult decisions regarding supply chain adjustments and cost-cutting measures. 

Economic Indicators Signal Caution: Economic experts are raising alarms about the broader implications of these tariffs. Torsten Sløk, chief economist at Apollo Global Management, warns of a 90% chance of a "Voluntary Trade Reset Recession," emphasizing the disproportionate impact on small businesses. These enterprises, which are less equipped to absorb the increased costs, may face order cancellations and potential bankruptcies. ​

Industry Responses and Outlook: Industry leaders are voicing concerns about the long-term effects of the current trade policies. The American Trucking Associations highlight the potential for decreased freight volumes and increased costs for motor carriers.  As the situation evolves, stakeholders are closely monitoring policy developments and market responses to navigate these challenging times.​